Rush To 2050 Emissions Target Foolhardy

Press Release      14 March 2011

ACT Deputy Leader and Climate Change Spokesman John Boscawen today demanded to know how Climate Change Minister Dr Nick Smith could propose to reduce New Zealand greenhouse gas emissions to 50 percent below 1990 levels by 2050 when he does not even know what effect this target will have on jobs and GDP.

“ACT lodged written Parliamentary Questions about the implications of the 2050 target on jobs, GDP, our relative status as a polluter, and our ‘clean green’ image.  The Minister’s response was that modelling wasn’t possible due to the number of uncertainties, and a reliance on other countries to also reduce their emissions,” Mr Boscawen said.

“Put simply: the Government has set a target for reducing emissions without having any clue about the effects it will have on the country – in fact, Dr Smith cannot even say with certainty whether or not the scheme will help the climate.

“Once again we see the Minister acting irresponsibly on climate change and emissions – despite the massive uncertainties surrounding his target he proposes to publish it in the ‘New Zealand Gazette’ and formally commit New Zealanders to achieving it.

“New Zealanders already face challenging economic conditions, and are struggling with the cost burden imposed by the implementation of the ETS.  The last thing we need is to risk an unknown economic outcome for a scheme that won’t even do what it’s supposed to.

“It is completely untenable for the Government to commit us to this target and I urge Dr Smith to scrap it.  At the very least, he should delay committing us to it until New Zealand families can be safely assured they will not be hurt by the Government’s climate change aspirations even further,” Mr Boscawen said. 

 

ATTACHMENT:

 

Question: Has the expected effect of achieving the Government’s proposed 2050 emissions reduction target on the total number of jobs available in New Zealand been modelled, if so, by whom and when?

Portfolio: Climate Change Issues

Minister: Hon Dr Nick Smith

Date Lodged:28/02/2011

Answer Text: It is not possible to model impacts on jobs over the timeframe of 40 years to 2050 of the Government's long term climate change policy because there are too many uncertainties such as technological change over that period. I would draw the member's attention to the economic analysis of the 2020 target done by NZIER and Infometrics that gives a good analysis of the likely GDP and broader economic impacts of emissions reductions (http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/climate/macroeconomic-impacts-of-climate-change-policy/index.html)

Attachment: None

Date Received:09/03/2011