Amended letter to the Editor -John, 7 December 2010
Submitted by climaterealists on Wed, 15/12/2010 - 10:45
My Dear Editor
I read your banner headline (2/12) 'Big dry on the way'. I don't know where the author lives, but around Orewa it's been dry for over a month. Then, last night it rained. So the heading was dead wrong!
However, I now see in the NZ Herald (7/12) the Met forecast is for 'the wettest summer in 21 years'. So I take it from that it will be dry then wet. Met says '... if there is not heavy rain by the end of January there's obviously something wrong with the way forecasters and scientists predict events'. Who could possibly disagree. Then there's the priceless quote 'It looks like the drought will end early in the new year. But it is recommended that farmers prepare for a drought to be on the safe side'. I get bit. There will either be a drought or there won't be.
Niwa and Metservice explain weather phenomena with great reliance on La Nina and El Nino influences. No doubt most people in NZ know what they are. La Nina has a 'weaker' effect than El Nino. In 'summer' La Nina tends to produce NE winds and more moist, rainy conditions in north east parts of the NI. In fact La Nina has so far produced a long dry period. So I wonder about placing too much reliance on it. El Nino, the stronger of the two influences, has less than a 25% of effect on NZ weather. Thus La Nina has less than that. In other words - not much.
Niwa and Metservice have access to excellent satellite information about pressure patterns which are the main producers of 'weather', yet still harp on about La Nina and El Nino as if they are magical rabbits they pull out of the hat.
They aren't.
Yours aye
John
OREWA
Note: 'Facts' from 'Bateman FACTS NZ'. The Met folk should read it they provided them! jc
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