Climate change forecast to increase food prices, world hunger

Articles like this one (below) give a clear demonstration as to why Climate Realists exist. Note the (edited ) highlighted parts- and see that in the midst of all the alarmism, most of the hype is created by computer models- which are only as good as the scenarios and information fed into them. Note the absence of anything really definite.... read it and weep.

CANCUN - Even if we stopped spewing global warming gases today, the world would face a steady rise in food prices this century.

On our current emissions path, climate change becomes the "threat multiplier" that could double grain prices by 2050 and leave millions more children malnourished, global food experts reported yesterday.

Beyond 2050, when climate scientists project temperatures might rise to as much as 6.4C over 20th century levels, the planet grows "gloomy" for agriculture, said senior research fellow Gerald Nelson of the International Food Policy Research Institute.

The specialists of the authoritative, Washington-based IFPRI said they fed 15 scenarios of population and income growth into supercomputer models of climate and found "climate change worsens future human well-being, especially among the world's poorest people".

The study, issued at the annual UN climate conference, said prices will be driven up by a combination of factors - a slowdown in productivity in some places caused by warming and shifting rain patterns, and an increase in demand because of population and income growth.

Change apparently is already under way. Returning from northern India, agricultural scientist Andrew Jarvis said wheat farmers there were finding warming was maturing their crops too quickly.

"The temperatures are high and they're getting reduced yields," Jarvis, of the Colombia-based International Centre for Tropical Agriculture, said last month.

For most farmers around the world, trying to adapt to these changes will pose major challenges, yesterday's IFPRI report said.

Research points to future climate disruption for agricultural zones in much of sub-Saharan Africa, south Asia and parts of Latin America, including Mexico. In one combination of climate models and scenarios, "the corn belt in the United States could actually see a significant reduction in productivity potential", said Nelson.

"Unlike the 20th century, when real agricultural prices declined, the first half of the 21st century is likely to see increases in real agricultural prices," the IFPRI report said.

Even with the implausible complete elimination immediately of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions, it said real prices for grain would rise because of growing demand and other factors - by 18 per cent for rice by 2050 under the most optimistic scenario, to up to 34 per cent for corn in the most pessimistic, a scenario envisioning high population growth.

But climate change "acts as a threat multiplier", making feeding billions more mouths even more challenging, IFPRI said.

With climate change factored in, the increases in real prices by 2050 could range from 31 per cent for rice to 100 per cent for corn. IFPRI has estimated that such prices could boost the global population of undernourished children by 20 per cent, an extra 25 million children.