Northern Europeans wishing for a warmer globe

Aardvark Daily  16 April 2010

You've got to feel sorry for those folks living in Northern Europe right now.

They've just learned that they could be headed into a mini-iceage thanks to an unusually low level of sunspot activity and now, to make things even worse, an erupting volcano in Iceland is filling their skies with a dimming haze of ash.

The ash problem is currently so bad that they've had to close much of the area's airspace to avoid the risk of airliners falling from the sky with ash-clogged engines.

The huge cloud now stretches over 1,000 Kms from the volcano and has risen to a height of 11,000m, the altitude at which most modern passenger jet aircraft are most efficient.

It's not unheard of for large volcanic eruptions (such as Mount Pinatubo in 1991) to result in reduced temperatures, as their ash dims the skies and reduces the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface of the earth.

In fact, in the two years following the Pinatubo eruption, the average temperature in the Northern Hemisphere fell by 0.6 degrees C and the global average temperature dropped by an astonishing 0.5 degrees C.

Fortunately for those living in the northern latitudes of Europe, emissions from the Iceland volcano haven't come anywhere near those of the Pinatubo but it's early days.

The other factor, deemed largely responsible for the UK suffering its 18th coldest winter in 350 years is that lack of sunspot activity.

Apparently the lack of ultraviolet radiation associated with sunspot activity has caused major disruption of the high-altitude jetstream winds that normally bring a flow of slightly warmer air to northern Europe -- hence the bitter winter experienced in 2009.

Right now I strongly suspect that our Northern European cousins are preying for more global warming and less of this dimming/ice-age stuff. They're also probably going to rediscover the joys that acid-rain brings as all that sulphur dioxide combines with rain to produce dilute suphurous and sulphuric acid.

These recent events also show just how much of the climate changes we observe are so far beyond our control that it's just not funny.

We can all switch to electric cars, buy a gazillion carbon-offsets, wear hemp teeshirts and tofu sandals as much as we want -- but all it takes is for mother nature to blink and all that self-induced but worthy suffering is negated in an instant.

Does that mean we shouldn't try to mitigate the (arguable) effects of anthropogenic global warming (AGW)?

If you're a believer in AGW then I suspect you'd be all in favour of doing everything we can to stave off global warming.

If you're a believer in Gaia then you'll probably have decided that this ash is the panet's way of forcing us to stop using evil carbon-belching jet airliners in the skies over Northern Europe. While conveniently forgetting that many of the emissions of this volcano are thousands of times more "climate changing" than the carbon-rich contrails they are displacing.

But let's go back to Pinatubo for a moment...

This volcano spewed enough particulate matter into the atmosphere to cause the earth's temperature to plummet by an astonishing half a degree in just 12-24 months. That is very significant.

But what about all the greenhouse gases that were also emitted by this (and other) volcanoes?

Surely, if some ash can drop the temps by that much, the sulphur dioxide, carbon dioxide and other gases emitted at the same time might have a similarly significant effect in raising temps over a slightly longer period (once the particulates have fallen to earth)?

With this in mind, just how can we really be so cock-sure that the global warming we're seeing is truly man-made?

The more I think about this whole climate-change issue the more I believe that we're just like a hot-air balloon being carried along in a strong wind of natural events.

Yes, we can influence our direction very slightly by engaging in the reduction of carbon emissions but such changes will be forever dwarfed by the power of nature, its sunspots, its volcanic eruptions and other influences.

By all means we should seek to be "good citizens" when it comes to protecting the ecosphere but we really ought not think for one moment that we have any real control over the future direction of our climate.

What does amaze me is how polarising the issue of AGW has become.

Some folks are so sure that we're engaging in environmental suicide that they preach it like a religion.

Others are so unwilling to acknowledge mankind's influence on climate change that they to engage in a kind of religious zealotry when promoting their viewpoints.

Then there are folks like me who sit in the middle and say "yes, there is a man-made component but we're really just a hot-air balloon being carried along in a galeforce wind".

What I find most worrying is the appearance of this religious zeal.

As most people know, religion has always been misused as a tool for acquiring power and wealth by preying on the "faith" of others.

Is the situation with AGW really any different?

Is it just coincidence that power-hungry politicians and bureaucrats are now building huge infrastructures to capitalise on our fear of AGW by levying new taxes and imposing draconian new laws that limit our rights and freedoms?

Sure looks like it to me!

In the meantime, if you were planning to fly to Northern Europe then I'm sorry but you're grounded. Mother nature has spoken!