To Nick Smith from Ken S 1 April 2010
Submitted by climaterealists on Wed, 07/04/2010 - 16:01
Dr Nick Smith
Minister of Environment and Climate Change issues
Hello Dr Smith
This data is from the prominent NZ Climate scientist who was refused entry to your meeting with Rodney Hide. (by whom?)
The Key government needs to do better than that - much better - the people expect due dilligence on the science and will start demanding it.
Any effort to prevent a robust debate on the science and economics will result in a loss of public support for National.
Regards,
Ken S
NZCLIMATE TRUTH 201X
1ST FEBRUARY 2009
REVISED 31ST MARCH 2010
NEW ZEALAND TEMPERATURES
.
Sources: New Zealand Institute Transactions and Proceedings 1868 http://tinyurl.com/7ycpl6
D C Bates 1920 Climate and Meteorology of New Zealand http://www.archive.org/details/climatemeteorolo00baterich
National Institute of Water and Air Research (NIWA) 2009. New Zealand Mean Air Temperatures http://tinyurl.com/a5nj3c
TEMPERATURES BEFORE 1867 AND 1971-2000
Sources 1868 New Zealand Institute and NIWA. Early temperatures converted from ºF
|
STATION
|
Years of Data
|
BEFORE 1867
|
Years of Data
|
1971-2000
|
|
Auckland
|
15
|
15.7ºC
|
25
|
15.1ºC
|
|
Taranaki
|
12
|
13.7ºC
|
20
|
13.6ºC
|
|
Wellington
|
10
|
13.2ºC
|
30
|
12.8ºC
|
|
Nelson
|
16
|
12.8ºC
|
25
|
12.6ºC
|
|
Christchurch
|
11
|
12.8ºC
|
26
|
12.1ºC
|
|
Dunedin
|
15
|
10.4ºC
|
26
|
11.0ºC
|
|
Mean
|
|
13.1ºC
|
|
12.9ºC
|
|
NIWA Mean
|
|
|
|
12.6ºC
|
PART 2. COMPARISON BETEEN MEAN TEMPERATURES BEFORE 1920 AND 1971-2000
Sources D C Bates 1920 Climate and Meteorology of New Zealand and NIWA
|
STATION
|
Years of Data
before1920
|
Mean Temperature
ºC
|
Years of data
1971-2000
|
Mean Temperature
ºC
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Auckland
|
56
|
15.1
|
25
|
15.1
|
|
Rotorua
|
32
|
12.6
|
21
|
12.6
|
|
Napier
|
29
|
14.3
|
21
|
14.5
|
|
Wellington
|
56
|
12.9
|
30
|
12.8
|
|
Nelson
|
31
|
13.1
|
25
|
12.6
|
|
Hokitika
|
34
|
11.8
|
30
|
11.7
|
|
Dunedin
|
55
|
10.1
|
28
|
11.0
|
|
Queenstown
|
9
|
10.1
|
30
|
10.7
|
|
Invercargill
|
11
|
10.0
|
29
|
9.9
|
|
Mean
|
|
12.2
|
|
12.3
|
Part 3. COMPARISON BETWEEN MEAN TEMPERATURES1949-1960 and 1971-2000
Sources: New ZealandMeteorological Service 1960. “Summaries of Climatological Observations at New Zealand Stations. Wellington (also conversion from ºF) plus NIWA
|
STATION
|
Years of Data
|
|
Years of Data
|
1971-2000
|
|
Kaitaia
|
1949-1960
|
15.7ºC
|
15
|
15.7ºC
|
|
Auckland
|
1948-1960
|
15.1ºC
|
25
|
15.1ºC
|
|
Tauranga
|
1941-1960
|
14.1ºC
|
16
|
14.5ºC
|
|
Rotorua
|
1885-1947
|
12.8ºC
|
21
|
12.8ºC
|
|
Gisborne
|
1937-1960
|
13.9ºC
|
21
|
14.3ºC
|
|
Taupo
|
1949-1960
|
11.8ºC
|
15
|
11.9ºC
|
|
New Plymouth
|
1942-1960
|
13.5ºC
|
27
|
13.6ºC
|
|
Napier
|
1924-1960
|
13.9ºC
|
21
|
14.5ºC
|
|
Wanganui
|
1937-1960
|
13.4ºC
|
24
|
14.0ºC
|
|
Palmerston North
|
1928-1960
|
12.7ºC
|
28
|
13.3ºC
|
|
Wellington
|
1928-1960
|
12.4ºC
|
30
|
12.8ºC
|
|
Nelson
|
1943-1960
|
11.8ºC
|
25
|
12.6ºC
|
|
Blenheim
|
1941-1960
|
12.7ºC
|
13
|
12.9ºC
|
|
Westport
|
1945-1960
|
12.1ºC
|
14
|
12.6ºC
|
|
Hokitika
|
1943-1960
|
11.1ºC
|
30
|
11.7ºC
|
|
Christchurch
|
1905-1960
|
11.4ºC
|
26
|
12.1ºC
|
|
Lake Tekapo
|
1950-1960
|
9.2ºC
|
23
|
8.8ºC
|
|
Timaru
|
1909-1960
|
11.0ºC
|
13
|
11.2ºC
|
|
Milford Sound
|
1934-1960
|
10.1ºC
|
24
|
10.3ºC
|
|
Queenstown
|
1929-1960
|
10.0C
|
30
|
10.7ºC
|
|
Alexandra
|
1928-1960
|
10.4ºC
|
12
|
10.8ºC
|
|
Dunedin
|
1947-1960
|
11.0ºC
|
26
|
11.0ºC
|
|
Invercargill
|
1948-1960
|
9.7ºC
|
29
|
9.9ºC
|
|
Chatham Island
|
1939-1958
|
11.1ºC
|
23
|
11.4ºC
|
|
Mean
|
|
12.1ºC
|
|
12.4ºC
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
COMMENTS
None of these figures come with any estimate of accuracy. This is understandable for the earliest figures, before 1920, since modern statististical methods were developed only in the 1930s. It is now usual in the scientific literature to provide 95% confidence limits for all figures. This is even done for the results of opinion surveys. It is therefore deplorable that the practice has not yet penetrated the New Zealand Meteorological Service.
There are particular difficulties with the "Daily Mean" temperature figures as they are an average of a maximum and minimum temperature, for which there is no recognised mathematical statistical treatment. The errors in taking such an average instead of a standard average are high, In addition there are uncertainties due to changes site location, from missing data, and those from the additional averaging treatment, This must mean that decimals of a degree in all these figures are of low significance and should be ignored
Even if the decimals are taken seriously, the comparisons between the average temperatures in the main cities in New Zealand have shown a remarkable constancy throughout European occupoation, and provide no cause to claim any significant change over the whole period.
The 1960 Report gives a large range of measured data, averaged over the period 1931-1960 for 146 weather stations in New Zealand and Pacific islands. The NIWA data derive from only 30 stations, so a large number of the 137 New Zealand stations listed in the 1960 report must have been shut down. Very few records cover the entire period from which an average is given. Missing years are likely to be different for the different records
There are 209 current New Zealand weather stations listed at http://tinyurl.com/4g43, owned by a variety of people and bodies There is a good map and results are given for each station, sometimes including a webcam. They report their results to NIWA. Most have continuous equipment. The stations belong to individuals and various organisations. Some belong to an association called Weather Underground. Auckland Airport and Wellington Airport are run by NOAA the US National Organisation for Atmospheric Administration, which explains why their results are freely available via the GISS website at
CONCLUSION
The only possible conclusion is that there is no evidence that the mean temperature in New Zealand has ever altered to a measurable extent since records began,
Cheers
Vincent Gray
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