To the Select Committee from Paul T 12 October 2009

 

I am submitting this in my own name. I have no quantification of the number of people who would support my viewpoint, but I know that it is considerable and increasing.
 
I do not wish to appear before the select committee to speak on this submission.
 
My educational qualifications include a double-major in Accounting and Economics from Auckland University. I am now retired and have had more time to devote to this issue than most. I have had a life-long interest in mathematics and science and have better than a school-leavers competence in both subjects, sufficient to be able to weigh the arguments from both sides of the debate without having to rely entirely on the say-so of someone else.
 
My source of information has been several years of research on the Internet reading many technical papers in order to understand as fully as is possible by an informed layperson [which is really all of us] about this important and contentious issue of variously named 'Global Warming', 'Anthropogenic Global Warming', 'AGW' and latterly, 'Climate Change', a term that seems to have been selected so as to be able to attribute every observed fluctuation of the climate to a supposed perturbation of a supposed previously existing equilibrium by the extensive use of fossil fuels.
 
Conclusions and Recommendations : --
 
The Climate Change Response (Moderated Emissions Trading) Bill should be scrapped in its entirety.
There is no legitimate basis for the imposition of any form of tax on CO2 emissions, which, far from being a pollutant, is one of the essentials of all life on the earth, on a par with water and the sun's radiation.
 
The proposed scheme could well be replaced by the promotion of a diametrically opposed alternative : the economically sound, equitable and scientifically-justifiable basis for promoting New Zealand food exports and farming methods as sustainable in the long term and contributing significantly to the welfare of the world's populations, particularly in developing countries. Nobody will benefit from New Zealand farmers being forced to reduce their production or from allowing productive land here to revert to permanent stands of trees. Even the full reforestation of New Zealand have no measurable effect on global climate.

Recent independent scientific studies are almost unanimous in questioning the validity of the propaganda emanating from the IPCC which has now lost all credibility and should be abandoned as a source of scientific information. Its political bias and failure to adhere to basic honesty have been exposed definitively.

 
 
Points supporting these conclusions : –
 
In Summary : --
 
  1. The Science is not settled, it is only the Politics that is settled.
  2. The word 'consensus' does not refer to a matter of science.
  3. Do not subordinate New Zealand's sovereignty to any charter of the United Nations.
  4. Wake up to reality. CO2 + H20 + sunlight = basis of all life.
  5. The primary source of methane gas is from microorganisms in the surface layers of the oceans.
  6. Equity demands proper attribution when products are exported.
  7. Reliance on the IPCC for scientific information is now totally unjustified.
  8. A simple, repeatable experiment showing the true drivers of climatic variability.
  9. The real need is to improve the distribution of both food and energy world-wide.
 
 
In Detail : –

 

  1. The Science is not settled, it is only the Politics that is settled.

     

If the National Caucus has been duped into believing the propaganda that emanates from the IPCC, then they are entirely ignorant of basic mathematics and physics. There are so many errors that are readily detectable in the IPPC's own publications that their evidence is self-refuting.

FATAL ERRORS IN IPCC'S GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS

Not only that, but most of the recent papers on Climate Change, from truly independent scientific researchers, have falsified the assumptions and even the data that underly the conjecture that man-made emissions of CO2 are the cause of last centuries warming.

The main pseudo-evidence of Anthropogenic Global Warming, the computer models which figure prominently in the publications of the IPCC, have now been shown to be based on inadequate and falsified data, to have ignored the primary causes of climate variability, to have glaringly omitted most of the natural processes of global climate and to have consequently reached false conclusions.

Instrumental data does not support the conclusions from the models but indicates that global temperatures have stopped rising and gone into decline over the last decade, despite steadily increasing emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels.

 

  1. The word 'consensus' does not refer to a matter of science.

    The word 'consensus' does not refer to a matter of science; this term relates primarily to the political realm and has no place in science. In science, one person can falsify a theory and if others can replicate their analysis, then that settles it. Theory must conform to and include all the data or else be discarded completely. The latter is now what needs to be done with the current theory of 'Anthropogenic Global Warming' since many have refuted that claim.

     

  2. Do not subordinate New Zealand's sovereignty to any charter of the United Nations.

    The United Nations is not an elected body and is composed of a mixture of elected governments and various forms of dictatorship, totalitarian governments and other undesirable forms of government.

    The only 'consensus' that is legitimate for parliament to submit to is that of the electorate here in New Zealand. Any attempt to subordinate the sovereignty of New Zealand to the dictates of the United Nations is an illegitimate abuse of power by an elected Government here.

 

  1. Wake up to reality. CO2 + H20 + sunlight = basis of all life.

    It is the sun that warms the earth and the clouds that moderate the climate. CO2 is a minor, secondary player in the climatic process but is the source, through photosynthesis, of all energy in the biosphere – not a pollutant.

    It can easily be shown that without the increased atmospheric CO2 of last century, the world would not have been able to maintain food production sufficiently to prevent widespread starvation. Rather than limiting CO2 emissions we should be encouraging them, with proper safeguards against real pollutants, in order to achieve a more equitable and adequate standard of living for all nations, not just the developed nations.

     

 
  1. The primary source of methane gas is from microorganisms in the surface layers of the oceans.

    The primary source of methane gas in the atmosphere is from microorganisms in the surface layers of the oceans. Don't penalise our farmers for no sufficient reason just because their animals naturally recycle atmospheric CO2, partly in the form of methane gas. Has any one done the analysis to account for the carbon cycle in its fullness? It is illogical and immoral to penalise farmers for CO2 emissions and not to credit them with CO2 absorption.

     

 
  1. Equity demands proper attribution when products are exported.

     

 
Equity demands that the country of consumption be responsible for the emissions of CO2, not the producer, when the product is exported.

Why are all New Zealanders being penalised for the one-sided attribution of emissions from farming when the produce is mainly exported and consumed by other countries? Would not logic and equity demand that the consumer be chargeable with the emissions, or should the oil-exporting countries be made accountable for the CO2 that is included in their exports also?

Farming is part of a natural cycle of CO2, amounting on the IPPC's own figures to 480 Gt/yr of which the portion attributed to man's influence is minimal. On the other hand the consumption of oil and coal for energy is adding CO2 from long sequestering in the ground. Oil and coal use, along with deforestation, are really the only truly 'anthropogenic' cause of increased CO2 emissions and these are relatively minor in comparison with the natural cycling of CO2 through the atmosphere, the biosphere, the ground and the oceans.

 

  1. Reliance on the IPCC for scientific information is now totally unjustified.

    Reliance on the IPCC for 'scientific' information is like relying on the gangs for information on 'P'. The evidence of in-breeding amongst the small clique of scientists behind the IPCC claims, combined with their withholding of the data on which their publications rely, contrary to the policies of the scientific bodies where their papers have been published as well as contrary to proper openness and transparency, has finally been exposed. After ten years of propaganda based on false conclusions from manipulated data, we now know that a few hand-picked trees are the only 'evidence' for exponential warming in the latter part of the last century. It is now time, and past time, that the New Zealand Government obtained truly independent scientific data on which to base important policies in this area of concern.

     

  2. A simple, repeatable experiment showing the true drivers of climatic variability.

     

Here is a simple experiment that I have performed, over the last 12 months, which anyone can replicate easily. It demonstrates that CO2 is not the driver of climate change. Rather solar radiation is the primary 'forcing' agent, water vapour in the atmosphere is the primary 'greenhouse gas' and clouds are the primary lens which modulates global warming/cooling.

 

a) Observe and record the temperatures throughout the day, along with the amount of sunlight received, the cloud cover and the time of day.

b) Main conclusions : –

 1) Daily variation in temperatures, between daytime high and overnight low, vastly outweigh the long-term estimates of global temperature increases by an order of magnitude.

2) Daily temperatures are massively impacted by the degree of cloud cover.

The greater the extent and duration of the cloud cover the lower the gain in temperature during the daytime.

The greater the extent and duration of the cloud cover the lower the loss in temperature during the nighttime.

3) Daily average temperatures differ significantly depending on the number of samples taken and the time of day. Averaging even a very large number of samples from around the world, without taking into consideration such variability cannot produce an 'average' with any degree of reliability suitable for long-term economic planning.

 

Combine those conclusions with the known correlation between the number of sun-spots and the eleven-year cycle of the sun's magnetic activity, and you will have identified one of the more significant drivers of climatic variability and long-term change, one that has been known for centuries and one which outweighs the minuscule contributions of man's additions of CO2 to the atmosphere from the use of fossil fuels. Until this well-known natural 'forcing' has been quantified and taken fully into account, the attribution of the acknowledged warming of the latter half of last century to anthropogenic emissions of CO2 is completely unjustified.
 
9.                   The real need is to improve the distribution of both food and energy world-wide.

The real need is to both feed the world and to make the distribution and use of energy more equitable, so that the developing countries can catch up with the developed countries in terms of calorific intake of food, adequate provision of health-care, availability of modern technology for electricity supply and leading to improved life expectancy for people living in the developing world.

New Zealand can and should take a leading role in this, first by promoting and using balanced, verifiable scientific information. Leading the way in market-stimulation of new technologies and over-seas assistance programs to foster and speed the adoption of such technologies. A good example of what can be accomplished would be the 'Green Agricultural Revolution' largely attributed to the work of Nobel Laureate : --

Dr. Norman E. Borlaug:

 
 
 
 
Prepared by : --
 

Paul T

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